LNP 3.7%
Incumbent MP
Mark Boothman, since 2017. Previously member for Albert 2012-2017.
Geography
South-East Queensland. Theodore covers western parts of Gold Coast City, including the suburbs of Oxenford, Upper Coomera, Guanaba, Maudsland, Clagiraba and parts of Helensvale and Mount Nathan.
History
The seat of Theodore was created in 2017 as a successor to the seat of Albert.
The seat of Albert was first created in 1888, and has existed for all but ten years since then. The seat was abolished in 1950 and restored in 1960. The seat has been a marginal seat regularly changing hands since the 1970s.
In its early years, the seat was dominated by various conservative MPs, with the ALP never winning the seat prior to its abolition in 1950.
In 1960 it was won by the Country Party’s Cec Carey. He held the seat until his death in 1969.
The 1970 by-election was won by Liberal candidate Bill Heatley. Heatley had previously filled a vacancy in the Senate and served as a Senator from 1966 to 1968. He died in late 1971.
At the 1972 election, Albert was won by Labor candidate Bill D’Arcy. He held the seat for one term, losing in 1974. He later won the seat of Woodridge in 1977 and held it until 2000.
Albert was won in 1974 by National Country Party candidate Ivan Gibbs. He served as a minister in the conservative government from 1979 to 1989.
The ALP’s John Szczerbanik won Albert in 1989. He was re-elected in 1992 but lost the seat in 1995 to the National Party’s Bill Baumann. Baumann was defeated in 2001 by the ALP’s Margaret Keech.
Margaret Keech held Albert for four terms from 2001 to 2012. In 2012, Keech lost to LNP candidate Mark Boothman. Boothman was re-elected in 2015, and won the renamed seat of Theodore in 2017.
Candidates
- Tracey Bell (Labor)
- Mark Boothman (Liberal National)
- John Woodlock (Greens)
- Anita Holland (One Nation)
- Robert Marks (United Australia)
- Gale Oxenford (Independent)
Assessment
Theodore, under a former name of Albert, was held by Labor as recently as 2012. The LNP would be favourites here but it’s still a marginal seat.
2017 result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Mark Boothman | Liberal National | 10,678 | 39.7 | -5.4 |
| Luz Stanton | Labor | 8,462 | 31.5 | +0.3 |
| Darrell Lane | One Nation | 5,114 | 19.0 | +19.0 |
| Tina Meni | Greens | 2,634 | 9.8 | +3.8 |
| Informal | 1,525 | 5.4 |
2017 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Mark Boothman | Liberal National Party | 14,445 | 53.7 | -1.6 |
| Luz Stanton | Labor | 12,443 | 46.3 | +1.6 |
Booth breakdown
Booths in Theodore have been divided into three areas: central, north and south.
The LNP won a 55.4% majority of the two-party-preferred vote in the centre of the seat while Labor won smaller majorities in the south (53.1%) and the north (52.4%). The LNP won over 58% of the vote in the pre-poll vote and the other votes.
One Nation came third, with a primary vote ranging from 18.5% in the south to 20.4% in the north.
| Voter group | ON prim | LNP 2PP | Total votes | % of votes |
| South | 18.5 | 46.9 | 6,635 | 24.7 |
| Central | 18.8 | 55.4 | 6,355 | 23.6 |
| North | 20.4 | 47.6 | 2,915 | 10.8 |
| Pre-poll | 18.7 | 58.6 | 5,614 | 20.9 |
| Other votes | 19.6 | 58.3 | 5,369 | 20.0 |
Election results in Theodore at the 2017 QLD state election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and One Nation primary votes.
I’ve read a comment on Poll Bludger that apparently Labor are putting strong resources into seats of Theodore and Coomera. Apparently they see these seats as there best chance of making gains on the Gold Coast. Even better then Currumbin which the comment rated as Labor’s third best chance.
Theodore was part of the abolished seat of Albert. Albert was the most winnable seat on the Gold Coast during the Beattie/Bligh. However, it should be noted that alot of the Labor friendly Logan City went in the new seat of Macalister.
LNP are still the favorites. I think a Labor minority government or narrow Labor win this seat will seat stay with the LNP. But if Labor secures a strong Labor win, but not necessary a landslide in the (51 – 55) seats bracket then its possible for them to win Theodore.
@Political Nightwatchman, I’ve seen those same comments re: Theodore and Coomera. Speaking to those I know in the area, they’re a bit apathetic with politics but angry over the border closures. Ok small sample but I get a sense this seat in this election is a bridge too far for the ALP. (Plus from them, anecdotal evidence of others only holding on jobs because of assistance… which ‘steps down’, (not a cut) this month.. so that could really start having an impact. Even though this is a federal issue, a lot are blaming the state as with borders more open would mean the businesses would be propped up.)
Will be interesting to see if this sentiment is echoed more across the area.
Prediction (August 2020): LNP Retain
Huge One Nation vote last time, but no candidate this time. How that vote splits will be decisive. Especially if there is any swing of LNP to ALP here.
Theordore and Coomera were largely in the old Albert which was a reliable labor seat.,,,,,,, till Bligh’s defeat. Bonney was carved out of the more pro alp parts of other seats… so maybe?
Theodore probably should be getting more attention in the comments section. I have checked on Sportsbet and it has the best odds out of the non-Labor held seats on the Gold Coast. The LNP are still favorites though at $1.50 compared to $2.50 to Labor.
I notice Burleigh and Currumbin seem to be mentioned more in the media as potential gains for Labor before Theodore. If there is a 3% swing against the LNP in the Gold Coast you would then have to think seats would start falling. There is only so much you can do against the pendulum. I understand a uniform swing wouldn’t get Theodore back for Labor. But the swing is not always uniform and on a 3.7% margin its certainly a seat that potentially could be in play for Labor.
Prediction: LNP Retain
LNP retain
LNP retain but marginal
The ALP probably have a better chance here than any other Gold Coast seat they don’t hold, still can’t see it being enough though
LNP retain
Something that hasn’t been taken into account, that is not in the statistics, is that Mark Boothman is very active in the community and schools, and regularly is out and about talking to the public on the side of the road or in parks. Because of this, I believe it helps swing some voters.
Conversely, I have never seen the labor candidate until election time.